TERMS OF REFERENCE — MIDLINE EVALUATION (NYOKAL LOCAL RIGHTS PROGRAMME)

TERMS OF REFERENCE — MIDLINE EVALUATION (NYOKAL LOCAL RIGHTS PROGRAMME)

Project/LRP Name: Nyokal Local Rights Programme (LRP) Midline Evaluation

Location(s) of the Project/LRP: Homa Bay County (Ndhiwa Sub-County — Kobama Division: Central Kwabwai, East Kwabwai, North Kwabwai, Rachar, Southwest Kwabwai and West Kwabwai locations)

Duration of Assignment: 6 Weeks

Anticipated Fieldwork Window: 14th -23rd October 2026

Background & Rationale

ActionAid International Kenya (AAIK) is a non-partisan, non-religious development organization that has worked in Kenya since 1972 to challenge poverty and injustice. AAIK's work is anchored in the Human Rights Based Approach (HRBA), which emphasizes empowerment, solidarity, and campaigning, with women, children and young people at the heart of its programming.

AAIK established the Nyokal Local Rights Programme (LRP) in Kobama Division, Ndhiwa Sub-County, Homa Bay County, following a desk review and appraisal that identified the area as having development challenges comparable to the former Nyarongi LRP. A baseline survey for Nyokal LRP was commissioned by AAIK with the final report submitted in February 2023. The baseline established that poverty is rife in Ndhiwa Sub-County (ranked 203 out of 210 constituencies, with a poverty prevalence of 73%), with significant rights denials and gaps across education (64% of household heads with little or no formal education; 59% citing long distance to school and 51% citing unaffordability as barriers), water and sanitation (only 26% of households within 1km of potable water; 70% latrine coverage, 26% of which shared), livelihoods and food security (mean adequate food provisioning of 4.6 months; 67% rating food security as bad or worse), health (mean distance of 3.27km to the nearest facility; HIV prevalence of 14% against a national average of 7%), governance (92% unaware of county planning and budgeting processes; only 3% agreeing that devolved funds are used transparently), and gender and disability inclusion (68% reporting wife battering as prevalent; approximately 300 PWDs in Kobama Division facing systemic exclusion).

Since the baseline, AAIK has been implementing Nyokal LRP interventions guided by the baseline's programmatic recommendations across education, water and sanitation, livelihoods and food security, health, governance, and gender and women's rights. A Midline Study is now required to measure progress against the baseline indicators and values, assess the effectiveness of interventions implemented to date, capture contextual changes, and generate evidence to inform mid-course programme adjustments ahead of the LRP's end-term evaluation.

Purpose & Objectives of the Assignment

This Terms of Reference (ToR) is for a Midline Evaluation. The purpose is to assess progress made against the baseline indicators and values established in the February 2023 Nyokal LRP Baseline Survey Report, and to generate credible, rights-based evidence to guide the remaining implementation period, mid-course programme adjustments, and preparation for the end-term evaluation. The specific objectives of the assignment are to:

• Measure the level of change against the baseline values and proposed indicators across all thematic areas (education, water and sanitation, livelihoods and food security, health, governance and devolved resources, and gender, women's rights and PWD inclusion) in Kobama Division, Nyokal LRP.
• Assess the reach, relevance and effectiveness of Nyokal LRP interventions implemented since February 2023, including school infrastructure and bursary support, water and sanitation projects, livelihoods and farmer group support, health facility strengthening, governance and public participation platforms, and gender/GBV prevention and response mechanisms.
• Document contextual changes and emerging issues since the baseline (e.g. changes in poverty levels, HIV and AIDS prevalence, climate and rainfall patterns, land tenure, and devolved funds administration) that may affect the remaining LRP period.
• Assess community awareness of, participation in, and satisfaction with LRP interventions to date, disaggregated by gender, age and disability status.
• Determine the extent to which target communities have organized themselves and strengthened their capacity to claim their constitutional rights since the baseline.
• Provide actionable, evidence-based recommendations to guide programme adjustments for the remaining implementation period and to inform indicator targets for the end-term evaluation.

Scope of Work

The midline study will be conducted in Kobama Division, Ndhiwa Sub-County, Homa Bay County, covering the same six locations sampled at baseline: Central Kwabwai, East Kwabwai, North Kwabwai, Rachar, South West Kwabwai and West Kwabwai. It will cover the following thematic areas, consistent with the baseline survey:

• Right to Education
• Right to Water and Sanitation
• Livelihoods and Food Security
• Access to Health Facilities and Affordable Healthcare
• Governance, Devolved Resources and Power Relations
• Gender, Women's Rights and Persons with Disabilities (PWD)

The study will not cover areas outside Kobama Division/Nyokal LRP. The study will engage the following respondent groups, consistent with and building on the baseline sampling approach:

• Community members (women, men, youth, girls and boys, village/opinion leaders, elders, and persons with disabilities)
• School administrators, Boards of Management (BoM) members, and education officials (including QUASO)
• Health facility in-charges and health officials
• County and sub-county government officials (e.g. Finance and Budgets, Gender, Assistant County Commissioner, Ward Administrator)
• Chiefs, women group leaders, youth group leaders, PWD representatives and local Community-Based Organizations (CBOs)
• AAIK Nyokal LRP project staff

The consultant is expected to undertake the following key activities:

(a) Inception Report: Prepare an inception report outlining the understanding of the scope of work, proposed methodology, sampling framework, data collection tools, and work plan, drawing on a review of the February 2023 baseline survey report and tools.

(b) Desktop Review: Conduct a review of the Nyokal LRP baseline survey report and annexes (data collection tools, list of respondents, complete data analysis tables and case studies), the Nyokal LRP PRA report, the LRP Appraisal report, and other available secondary data, and provide inputs to enrich the Midline Evaluation tool questions to ensure comparability with baseline indicators.

(c) Work Planning: Prepare the Midline Evaluation work plan in consultation with AAIK, including a finalized schedule for fieldwork, enumerator training, and reporting.

(d) Data Collection Tools: Develop finalized survey instruments, FGD and KII guides, and reflection tools that are comparable to the baseline tools (to enable valid trend analysis) while reflecting AAIK's four core lenses: rights-based approach, women's leadership, young people engagement, and community accountability.

(e) Fieldwork: Conduct data collection across all six locations of Kobama Division using mixed methods (quantitative household survey, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, case studies, and observation/PRA tools), ensuring representation by location, gender, and special needs groups consistent with the baseline sample design.

(f) Fieldwork Report: Document all data collection activities including locations visited, stakeholders engaged, challenges encountered, and evidence of participatory processes and safeguarding compliance.

(g) Draft Midline Report: Provide comprehensive analysis disaggregated by gender, age, disability status and other relevant characteristics, presenting midline values against each baseline indicator and value (as set out in the baseline's indicator tables for education, water and sanitation, livelihoods and food security, health, and governance) and the direction/magnitude of change.

(h) Validation Workshop: Present preliminary findings to AAIK staff, partners, and community representatives, compressed into a PowerPoint presentation, for feedback and validation, and incorporate stakeholder inputs into the final report.

(i) Final Midline Report: Submit a consolidated final report in both soft and hard copy formats, including an executive summary, context and methodology, disaggregated findings across all thematic areas benchmarked against baseline values, and updated programme design and course-correction recommendations.

Evaluation Questions / Indicator Set

The midline study will generate data against the following key evaluation questions, benchmarked against the values established in the February 2023 Nyokal LRP baseline survey:

1. Right to Education

• What is the current proportion of children of school-going age who are in school, compared to the baseline value of 54% (1,019 of 1,878 children in surveyed households)?
• How have enrolment, retention and transition rates for girls and boys changed against baseline values (gross enrolment rate 110%, net enrolment rate 92.9%, retention rate 89%, transition rate 50.9%)?
• Has the teacher-to-pupil ratio improved from the baseline (ECDE 1:29; Primary 1:38)?
• What changes are evident in school infrastructure (classrooms, latrines, water access, disability access) since the baseline documentation of inadequate facilities (e.g. at Apuoche, Nyasocedi and Ratanga Primary Schools)?
• To what extent have the drivers of late enrolment and dropout (long distance to school 59%, unaffordability 51%, low value attached to education 33%, child pregnancies, and the pull of Boda Boda/casual labour for boys) changed since baseline?
• What progress has been made in the functionality of school Boards of Management (BoM) and women's representation on them (baseline: to be determined)?

1. Right to Water and Sanitation

• Has the proportion of households with access to potable water within 1km changed from the baseline value of 26%?
• How have the main sources of drinking water shifted from the baseline pattern (rainwater 36%, surface water 17%, unprotected dug wells 15%, no piped water)?
• Has latrine coverage improved from the baseline value of 70% (26% of which was shared with neighbours)?
• Has the proportion of households treating drinking water improved from the baseline value of 42%?
• What is the current status of functional community water user groups and protected shallow wells (baseline: zero of each)?

1. Livelihoods and Food Security

• What is the current proportion of households consuming three meals a day, compared to the baseline value of 63%?
• Has the mean number of months of adequate household food provisioning improved from the baseline value of 4.6 months?
• What changes are evident in the proportion of households practising cash-crop farming (baseline 17%) and in maize yields (baseline below 90kg bag per acre, recorded mean of 70kg)?
• What proportion of households are now accessing agricultural extension services, compared to the baseline value of 5%?
• What progress has been made in protecting women's and widows' land and property rights, given the baseline's documentation of dispossession cases?

1. Access to Health Facilities and Affordable Healthcare

• Has the mean distance to the nearest health facility changed from the baseline value of 3.27km (against a proposed target of 2km)?
• What is the current status of functional Health Management Committees (baseline: zero)?
• Has HIV and AIDS prevalence changed from the baseline value of 14% (against the national average of 7% at the time)?
• What changes are evident in the prevalence of key diseases (baseline: malaria 95%, common cold 47%, pneumonia 28%, stomach-related illness 16%)?
• What proportion of births are now attended by skilled health personnel, compared to the baseline value of 16.1%?

1. Governance, Devolved Resources and Power Relations

• Has community awareness of and participation in county development planning and budgeting processes improved from the baseline (92% unaware; 97% reporting no participation in the past year)?
• Has the proportion of community members accessing devolved funds changed from the baseline value of 16%?
• Are devolved funds now perceived as more transparently and accountably managed, compared to the baseline finding that only 3% of respondents agreed with this statement?
• Has Homa Bay County made progress in developing a Public Participation Act, which was absent at baseline?
• What is the current level of community awareness of constitutional rights, compared to the baseline value of 40% aware of the Constitution of Kenya 2010?

1. Gender, Women's Rights and PWD

• Has the prevalence of violence against women and girls changed from the baseline (wife battering 68%, rape 33%, defilement 22%; 38% reporting personal or close experience of domestic/gender violence)?
• What progress has been made in women's representation in devolved funds management committees and school BoMs (baseline: to be determined)?
• What changes are evident in women's and widows' access to, control over, and ownership of land and other productive assets?
• What progress has been made in PWD inclusion in education, health and community affairs, given the baseline finding of only one special-needs education unit serving the entire Ndhiwa Sub-County and an estimated 300 PWDs in Kobama Division facing stigmatization and exclusion?

Approach & Methodology

The consultant is expected to propose and design a rigorous methodology for conducting the midline study, which must be participatory, rights-based, gender-responsive, ethical, and inclusive of marginalized groups including persons with disabilities, young people, and women. A mixed-methods approach is required, combining quantitative and qualitative approaches, and must be designed to allow valid comparison with the February 2023 baseline survey.

Minimum Methodological Expectations include:

• Use of a mixed-method approach combining a quantitative household survey with qualitative methods (focus group discussions, key informant interviews, case studies, observation, and Participatory Rural Appraisal/PRA tools), consistent with the baseline design.
• A statistically sound and representative sampling framework covering all six locations of Kobama Division sampled at baseline (Central Kwabwai, East Kwabwai, North Kwabwai, Rachar, Southwest Kwabwai, West Kwabwai), using a probability proportionate to size approach as applied at baseline. The consultant must provide a clear sampling methodology and justify the proposed sample size, with reference to the baseline sample of 395 households (margin of error of ±2.94% at 95% confidence level).
• All data must be disaggregated beyond male/female to include: number of households, young women and men, girls and boys in and out of school, persons/children with disabilities, and other relevant sub-groups, consistent with baseline disaggregation.
• Gender and context sensitivity must be embedded in interview settings and tool design, particularly given the baseline's documentation of high GBV prevalence and HIV/AIDS-related vulnerability in the area, to allow respondents of all backgrounds to participate freely and safely.
• Digital data collection tools are strongly encouraged. All tools must be approved by AAIK prior to fieldwork and should be structured to allow direct comparison against baseline indicator values.
• Enumerators should be recruited from Kobama Division/Ndhiwa Sub-County to enable ease of access and responsiveness, with preference given to those with prior experience in similar assignments (including, where possible, enumerators who supported the 2023 baseline).
• No photographs or case studies are to be taken without the informed consent of participants.

The methodology must be further detailed and refined during the inception phase. It must include study type, sampling procedure and sample size, data collection instruments, study process, and data analysis methods, with explicit reference to how midline values will be benchmarked against the baseline indicator tables. The consultant is expected to use visual methods and participatory tools for group-based participatory analysis.

Below ActionAid's Evaluation Principles must be adhered to throughout the assignment:

• Promote participation and agency of community women and men at all stages of the evaluation (planning, data collection and analysis, and communications).
• Generate useful learning through the process and outputs of evaluation.
• Promote women's rights, ensuring full participation of women, engaging women's rights expertise and ensuring gender and age disaggregated data.
• Recognize and analyze power relationships at all stages of the evaluation, including compliance with Child Protection and other ethical standards related to protection, including the Prevention of Sexual Exploitation and Abuse.
• Promote accountability, primarily to people living in poverty and exclusion and to supporters and donors.
• Be transparent, by presenting clear reports.
• Reflect evidence and rigor through credible research methodology.
• Link to monitoring and learning, building on existing information (including the 2023 baseline) and actively promoting evaluation findings.
• Build partnerships through communication and collaboration.
• Draw the link between community-level results and the broader context to identify factors related to structural change (social movements, policy change, cultural shifts).
• Reflect ActionAid's Feminist Leadership Guidelines in the evaluation process. See: ActionAid Feminist Research Guidelines (https://actionaid.org/sites/default/files/publications/ActionAid%20Feminist%20Research%20Guidelines_2021.pdf)
• Apply Inclusive Systemic Evaluation for Gender Equality, Environments and Marginalized Voices (ISE4GEMs). See: https://www.unwomen.org/sites/default/files/Headquarters/Attachments/Sections/Library/Publications/2018/ISE4GEMs-A-new-approach-for-the-SDG-era-en.pdf
• Promote credible and sustainable alternatives.

Timeline & Deliverables

The assignment must be completed within a maximum of 42 days (6 weeks), of which at least 7-10 days must be dedicated to fieldwork. The indicative timeline and deliverables are as follows:

Deliverable

Completed by (indicative end date / week)

Potential Constraints / Notes

Inception Report (with methodology, tools, workplan)

13th October 2026

AAIK conflicting schedules and priorities; access to the Feb 2023 baseline dataset and tools.

Data Collection (fieldwork)

23rd October 2026

Seasonal road impassability in Kobama Division (black cotton soils); short/long-rains timing.

Draft Midline Report

30th October 2026

AAIK conflicting schedules and priorities.

Validation Workshop & Presentation

6th November 2026

Availability of community representatives and AAIK staff for joint validation.

Final Report (with annexes, datasets, tools)

16th November 2026

AAIK conflicting schedules and priorities.

Logistics, Travel & Security

AAIK will provide the following logistical support for this assignment:

• Official transport will be availed where possible to support field visits across the six locations of Kobama Division. Where official transport cannot be provided, travel expenses will be reimbursed based on actual and realistic costs. The consultant must seek prior consent from AAIK before incurring any travel expenses.
• Accommodation at the venue of the assignment (Ndhiwa Sub-County/Homa Bay County) will be arranged by AAIK for the duration of fieldwork.
• AAIK will facilitate introductions to county and sub-county government officials, community leaders, and key stakeholders (including those engaged during the baseline) to support data collection.

The consultant is responsible for:

• Costs associated with enumerator recruitment, training, and supervision (these must be costed into the financial proposal).
• Digital data collection equipment and related software, where applicable.
• Any other costs not explicitly covered by AAIK.

Security considerations: Kobama Division, Ndhiwa Sub-County, is generally accessible and does not present acute security risks. However, consultants should be aware that the area is predominantly served by ungraded, black cotton soil roads that become impassable during the rainy seasons, and that some locations (e.g. Wachar, Nyadoto, Got Kojowi, Wayara, Ruga, Got Kowiti) are particularly remote. Fieldwork should, where possible, avoid the peak rainy season and prioritize morning hours, as was done during the baseline survey. The consultant must adhere to AAIK's security protocols and must immediately report any security incidents to the AAIK program team. AAIK retains the right to suspend or postpone fieldwork in the event of security concerns.

Budget & Payment Schedule

The payment schedule will be milestone-based, linked to the acceptance of key deliverables, as follows:

• 30% upon submission and acceptance of the Inception Report.
• 40% upon submission and acceptance of the Draft Midline Report.
• 30% upon submission and acceptance of the Final Midline Report.

All payments will be subject to Kenyan statutory withholding tax deductions as applicable. AAIK reserves the right to withhold payment or request revisions if deliverables do not meet the required standards.

Ethics, Safeguarding & Do-No-Harm

Given the nature of the communities involved, including women and girls affected by GBV and a documented HIV/AIDS prevalence of 14% at baseline, children and youth in schools, orphans and vulnerable children (OVCs), and persons with disabilities, consultants must apply heightened sensitivity and robust safeguarding protocols throughout the assignment. All data collection involving women and SGBV survivors must follow trauma-informed approaches, and discussions on sensitive themes (GBV, land rights, teenage pregnancies, HIV/AIDS, drug and substance abuse) must be conducted in safe, gender-segregated settings where appropriate.

All evaluations commissioned by ActionAid Kenya must uphold the highest ethical standards, safeguarding commitments, and the principle of Do No Harm. Consultants must:

• Comply with ActionAid's policies including the Safeguarding Policy, Child Protection Policy, and the Prevention of Sexual Exploitation, Abuse and Harassment (PSEAH) standards.
• Obtain informed consent. All participants must give voluntary, informed consent (oral or written, depending on context). For children or youth, parental/guardian consent and assent from the child are both required.
• Ensure confidentiality and anonymity. Participants' identities must be protected unless explicit permission is provided. Raw data must be securely stored and anonymized before sharing.
• Respect community norms while protecting rights. Ensure culturally appropriate engagement, but never at the expense of women's or children's rights.
• Apply safeguarding protocols for disclosures. Consultants must be aware of and prepared to follow referral pathways if safeguarding issues (e.g. GBV, child abuse) are disclosed during data collection.
• Ensure safe and inclusive participation. Methods must be designed to enable meaningful and safe participation of women, girls, boys, youth, and marginalized groups (e.g. persons with disabilities).
• Apply ethical use of images and stories. Photos, video, or direct quotes can only be used with prior informed consent, documented and stored appropriately.
• Ensure data protection and ownership. All data collected remain the property of ActionAid Kenya and must be stored securely, transferred to AAIK, and not shared externally without permission.

Consultant Profile & Qualifications

We are looking for consultants with the following key skills and capacity. These criteria will be used to assess applications alongside applicants' technical proposals.

General Criteria

• A master's degree or equivalent work experience in Social Sciences, Development Studies, Gender Studies, Quantitative Economics, or a related field.
• At least 5 years of experience in developing and carrying out monitoring and evaluation (MEL) systems, baselines, midline and endline evaluations from a feminist lens with diverse knowledge in mixed methods approaches.
• Proven experience in participatory approaches to designing and delivering baseline/Midline Evaluations in community development contexts.
• Demonstrable expertise and experience on women's and girls' rights, GBV, gender equality, and the Human Rights Based Approach (HRBA).
• Experience and willingness to work in Ndhiwa Sub-County, Homa Bay County, including areas with limited infrastructure.
• Excellent facilitation skills.
• Proficient in English and Kiswahili; knowledge of local languages relevant to Nyokal LRP is an added advantage.

Technical Criteria

• Experience in qualitative and quantitative methodology, methods, tools, analysis, and data visualization.
• Experience in participatory and community-led research approaches.
• Demonstrable knowledge and skills in development and use of digital data collection methods and tools.
• Evidence of strong downward accountability mechanisms used with project stakeholders and research participants to actively share results and learning.
• Evidence of use of ethical considerations and methodological measures that respect the rights of all stakeholders.
• Evidence of successfully designing and managing large-scale, rigorous, and robust research processes and evaluations, including trend/change analysis against an established baseline.
• Evidence of producing clear, concise, and high-quality reports in English.

Proposal Requirements (Submission Package)

Interested consultants or firms are requested to submit a complete application package comprising:

• Technical Proposal (8–15 pages): Demonstrating understanding of the Terms of Reference, proposed methodology and sampling strategy for measuring change against the 2023 baseline, quality assurance approach, safeguarding and inclusion measures, and work plan.
• Financial Proposal: Detailed itemized budget covering professional fees, enumerator costs, travel and accommodation (where applicable), digital tools, withholding tax, and payment terms.
• Curriculum Vitae and Letter of Interest: A brief letter (maximum 2 pages) describing the applicant's understanding of the task, relevant experience, and qualifications, along with CVs of the lead consultant and all key team members.
• Capability Statement (2–3 pages): Detailing the firm's or consultant's experience in undertaking similar or related assignments, including a summary of relevant previous work (baselines, midlines, or endlines).
• Two previous work samples related to similar assignments.
• Two referees who can certify that the consultant has successfully undertaken and delivered a similar assignment.