Terms of Reference for Fiscal Space Analysis for Somalia/Somaliland

INVITATION TO BID FOR CONSULTANCY:

TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR FISCAL SPACE ANALYSIS FOR SOMALIA/SOMALILAND

SCI Contracting Office: Save the Children Somalia/land Country Office

Period of Consultancy

The duration of this assignment is 3 Months. encompassing preparation of materials and resources, desk review, workshop facilitation, and development of the final report. Specific schedules will be agreed upon with the selected consultant/consultancy firm.

Consultant type required: Consultancy Firm

Responsibility for Logistics arrangements and Costs

Save the children will pay the consultant fee in a lump sum and will not reimburse any incurred costs during the assignment. The consultant will cover their own Logistical arrangements, costs; including food, accommodation, local transport, and all cost associated with data collection work and whole activities.

Taxation Provisions

The consultancy firm shall be responsible for all taxes arising from the consultancy in line with the local Tax regulations applicable at the SCI contracting office.

Travel requirements

The consultancy firm will cover all travel costs (tickets) and arrange local travel to field sites.

Security requirements

The consultancy firm will comply with standard of Save the Children Security procedures, including the completion of SCI online security training (applicable to international consultants) prior to travel to Somalia.

Professional quality and Expertise

The following are the minimum requirements for the Consultancy Firm to be considered for conducting the assignment.

Firm Experience (Mandatory)

• Comparable assignments: at least three (3) Similar (country level assignments) completed in the last 7-10 years, covering fiscal space analysis, DRM diagnostics, public expenditure reviews, or PFM assessments. Evidence: contracts or completion letters and client references.
• demonstrated experience in child-sensitive or social-sector public finance analysis (education, health, nutrition, protection), including budget analysis and the equity and efficiency of spending. Evidence: sample reports.
• experience in fiscal scenario modelling, financing gap analysis, and human capital ROI modelling. This includes investment case and costing methodologies that link spending to child outcomes, such as the World Bank Human Capital Project approach, sector costing, and simulation tools (for example One Health Tool and education simulation models), and cost-of-inaction analysis. Evidence: share at least one modelling output the firm delivered
• experience harmonizing fiscal data across authorities with different reporting cycles and building consolidated fiscal and financing databases.
• experience applying established methodologies, such as child budget analysis, child-sensitive expenditure tagging and tracking, and Save the Children’s public finance for children (PF4C) approach, including the “adequacy, equity, efficiency, effectiveness and transparency” lens.
• Experience in analyzing intragovernmental fiscal relations, on-budget and off-budget aid flows, and political economy dynamics.
• strong experience using desk review, KIIs, stakeholder mapping, budget and aid flow analysis, and validation workshops.
• a record of producing policy briefs, advocacy toolkits, and budget advocacy materials.

Contextual Experience (Mandatory)

• demonstrated experience in Somalia, Somaliland, or comparable federal and fragile contexts. This includes understanding the political and fiscal architecture, the federal-state relationship, and the political economy shaping revenue and budget decisions.
• existing relationships with, or demonstrated ability to access and coordinate with relevant ministries and parliamentary committees in Somalia/Somaliland
• demonstrated ability to work in fragile, conflict-affected, and access-constrained settings, with a security and risk management plan.

Team Requirements (Mandatory)

• Team Leader: a master’s degree or equivalent in economics, public finance, development economics, public policy, or a related field. At least 10 years of experience in fiscal policy, DRM, and public expenditure analysis, including as lead author of at least two fiscal space, PER, or DRM studies.
• Core team: at least three specialists, each with a relevant advanced degree and a minimum of 5 years of experience:
• a DRM and tax policy specialist
• a child-focused public finance specialist
• a fiscal modeler
• Somali language proficiency in the team, or local research coordinators in each of the three locations.
• strong English communication and report-writing skills, with facilitation experience.
• a demonstrated process for data quality assurance, validation, and peer review.

Understanding of Global benchmarks (Mandatory)

• Familiarity with global sector financing benchmarks: the Education 2030/Incheon targets (15-20% of public expenditure and 4-6% of GDP for education), the Abuja Declaration and Universal Health Coverage benchmarks for health, and ILO Recommendation No. 202 on social protection floors.
• Familiarity with budget transparency, participation, and oversight standards: the Open Budget Survey, GIFT principles, and OECD best practices.
• Experience integrating cross-cutting lenses: gender-responsive budgeting, disability-inclusive budgeting (CRPD Article 4), and climate-sensitive public finance (climate public expenditure reviews and tagging).
• compliance with Save the Children’s procurement, due diligence, and partner vetting requirements, with no history of sanctions, debarment, or conflict of interest.
• acceptance of Save the Children’s child safeguarding policy and code of conduct, and adherence to data protection and confidentiality requirements.

EVALUATION CRITERIA

The proposals submitted by consulting companies will be evaluated based on the following criteria:

Essential Criteria

Pass/Fail

The Bidder and its staff agree and Sign to comply with SCI policies embedded below at this ITB. The Bidder is to download below listed items, read, understand and sign off appropriate section in below.

a) Terms & Conditions of Bidding

b) Supplier Sustainability Policy and the included mandatory policies

Pass/Fail

• Nationally registered consultancies/firms must provide a valid Certificate of Registration issued by the relevant Ministry of Commerce of the Federal Republic of Somalia/Somaliland, or any Federal Member State.
• Internationally registered consultancies/firms must provide valid documentary evidence of business registration issued by authorized government authority, chamber of commerce, or other legally mandated registration body in their country of origin or country of operation.

Pass/Fail

Nationally registered consultancies/firms must provide a valid Tax Compliance Certificate (or equivalent tax clearance document) issued by the relevant Ministry of Finance, Revenue Authority, or other competent tax authority of the Federal Republic of Somalia, Somaliland, or any Federal Member State.

• Internationally registered consultancies/firms must provide a valid Tax Compliance Certificate, Tax Clearance Certificate, or equivalent document demonstrating compliance with tax obligations, issued by the authorized tax authority in their country of origin or country of operation.

Capability Criteria (Technical Evaluation):

Detailed technical proposal with clear understanding of the TOR and Methodology of how the consultant intends to conduct assignment with detailed work plan, clear milestones, methodologies, data analyses plan including any software to be used for analysis.

This to be evaluated based on:

1. Overall quality, clarity, organization and relevance of the technical proposal document
2. The level of work plan detail and how it is related to the proposed methodology

Two Copies of the previous similar reports relevant to the subject matter.

Submit official and genuine signed bank statement from 1st November 2025 to 31st October 2026.

Experience in conducting similar assignments related to the subject matter as proven experience. This to be evaluated based on:

1. Prior experience of conducting similar assignments in political analysis or DRM/PFM (- Please provide at least two contracts
   and/or LPOs
2. Two CVs for the proposed technical team detailing qualifications and experience
3. Cover letter introducing the company, outlining their technical expertise and interest for the assignment including their technical suitability.
4. Updated Company Profile (Optional)

Commercial Criteria (Financial Evaluation):

Detailed financial proposal with budget breakdown including all expenses, fees, and taxes.

Note: For the bid/proposal reviews and evaluations, a company must pass the essential criteria and score 60% and above on the capability to be considered in the next evaluation process and the ultimate decision will be based on interview performance

Application Procedure

• Interested consultant (s) who meet the consultancy requirements are requested to submit their bid and each application package should include the above required minimum requirements.

Applications can be submitted by:

Protected Email box below

• Email should be addressed to Somalia.Tenders@savethechildren.org
• Should you need any clarifications please direct your queries to Somalia.procurement@savethechildren.org and expect responses within maximum of two working days.
• Note – this is a sealed tender box which will not be opened until the tender has closed. Therefore, do not send tender related questions to this email address as they will not be answered.

The subject of the email should be TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR FISCAL SPACE ANALYSIS FOR SOMALIA/SOMALILAND

• All attached documents should be clearly labelled so it is clear to understand what each file relates to.
• Emails should not exceed 15mb – if the file sizes are large, please split the submission into two emails.
• Do not copy other SCI email addresses into the email when you submit it as this will invalidate your bid.

All applications MUST be submitted on or before the closing date below to be considered for the assignment. Only shortlisted Candidates will be proceeded to next levels of the evaluation.

Closing date for Applications

Interested consultants shall submit their applications through the above procedures or before 25th November 2026, EAT.

CONCEPT NOTE
Fiscal Space Analysis for Somalia/Somaliland (2026-2027)
Strengthening Domestic Resource Mobilization and Sector Financing for Sustainable Development

The fiscal systems in Somalia remain structurally constrained, fragmented, and highly dependent on external financing. Despite gradual improvements in public financial management (PFM) reforms and modest gains in domestic revenue mobilization, fiscal space remains limited by narrow tax bases, weak institutional capacity, high expenditure rigidity, and persistent political economy constraints. These structural weaknesses directly affect the State’s ability to progressively realize children’s rights through adequate financing of essential services.
At a macro-fiscal level, Somalia/land’s aggregate domestic revenue remains below 15% of GDP, significantly underperforming compared to the Sub-Saharan African average of 18–20%. This reflects a structurally weak revenue system characterized by heavy reliance on customs duties, limited inland taxation capacity, and an informal economy estimated at 60–80% of total economic activity. At subnational level, fiscal disparities are significant. Across Somalia, fiscal capacity remains constrained and uneven, with Somalia and Somaliland experiencing low and volatile own-source revenue performance. Annual revenues across FMS typically range between approximately USD 20–120 million, influenced by differences in port and trade activity, administrative capacity, economic conditions, and security dynamics. Revenue systems remain heavily dependent on a narrow range of tax and non-tax sources, while weaknesses in revenue forecasting continue to affect budget credibility, expenditure planning, and predictability of budget execution.
Expenditure structures across all governance systems are highly rigid, with wage bills and security expenditures consuming between 50% and 75% of total recurrent spending. This has resulted in chronic underinvestment in child-focused development sectors, particularly education, health, nutrition, and child protection systems. Education spending remains at 2–6% of total public expenditure, far below international benchmarks of 15–20%, constraining access to quality learning and widening equity gaps for vulnerable children, particularly in rural and displaced populations. Health systems similarly remain predominantly donor-financed and structurally underfunded from domestic sources, limiting sustainable access to essential maternal and child health services.
A defining feature of Somalia/land’s fiscal architecture is the high degree of aid dependency and fragmentation. A substantial portion of service delivery financing is off-budget and donor-managed, particularly in health, nutrition, education, and humanitarian response sectors. While external financing plays a critical role in sustaining essential child survival and protection services, it creates parallel systems of planning and execution that weaken fiscal coordination, reduce accountability, and limit the progressive transition toward sustainable, nationally owned financing of child rights obligations.
Beyond technical constraints, Somalia/land’s fiscal space is shaped by complex political economy dynamics. Customs points and trade corridors remain the primary revenue generation nodes, making fiscal systems highly sensitive to political control, security conditions, and intergovernmental relations. Weak fiscal decentralization frameworks, overlapping mandates between federal and state authorities, and limited taxpayer trust further constrain revenue expansion and compliance. These structural dynamics reinforce uneven fiscal capacity across regions and limit the predictability and adequacy of financing for child-centered public services.
In this context, fiscal space is not only a function of resource scarcity but also of institutional fragmentation, weak revenue governance, and inefficient expenditure prioritization. These constraints have direct implications for the realization of children’s rights, as fiscal limitations translate into insufficient and inequitable investment in education, health, nutrition, and social protection systems.
A comprehensive and comparative fiscal space analysis is therefore essential to identify realistic pathways for expanding domestic resource mobilization, improving expenditure efficiency, and enhancing alignment between fiscal policy and child rights commitments across Somalia/land,
Overall Objectives
To assess fiscal space, domestic resource mobilization potential, and public expenditure efficiency across Somalia/land’ to translate the findings into actionable policy and advocacy pathways that strengthen sustainable domestic financing for child rights and essential social services.
Specific Objectives.
• Assess fiscal space and public financing trends, including revenue performance, expenditure patterns, debt and fiscal sustainability, and financing constraints.
• Map revenue systematically (by source, collecting institution and level of government) and identify and quantify DRM opportunities through tax policy and administration reforms, non-tax revenues and other fiscal space measures.
• Analyse intergovernmental fiscal relations, including revenue assignment, sharing and transfer arrangements between Somalia and Somaliland, and their effect on financing for child-focused services.
• Review the share, trend and equity of public expenditure on child-sensitive sectors (education, health, nutrition and social protection), including disparities by region, gender, displacement status and disability, as the entry point for later sector-specific expenditure and fiscal space analyses.
• Assess the alignment between public financing and child rights priorities, identify financing gaps, inequities, and barriers that limit investment in children and essential social services.
• Map domestic and external financing flows, including on-budget and off-budget ODA, and assess their contribution to child-focused sectors and long-term sustainability.
• Map and analyse domestic and external financing flows, including on-budget and off-budget development assistance, to determine their contribution to child-focused sectors and long-term financing sustainability.
• Develop fiscal reform scenarios and investment cases showing how DRM and expenditure-efficiency reforms can translate into increased and predictable allocations to child-focused sectors, including through earmarking, soft ring-fencing and performance-based transfers.
• Identify political, institutional and policy entry points for reform through stakeholder, political economy and budget process analysis.
• Design advocacy pathways and policy engagement strategies that enable governments, parliamentarians, civil society, and development partners to advance fiscal reforms and increase sustainable domestic financing for child rights and essential social services.
Outcomes
• Governments and stakeholders have access to harmonized and comparative evidence based on fiscal space, domestic resource mobilization opportunities, public financing trends, and expenditure efficiency across Somalia/land.
• Government institutions utilize fiscal space and financing evidence to inform budget planning, fiscal policy reforms, and resource allocation decisions in priority child-sensitive sectors.
• Evidence-based fiscal reform options and financing scenarios are identified and promoted to expand domestic resource mobilization and increase fiscal space for investments in children and essential social services.
• Civil society, development partners, parliamentarians, and government actors are equipped with actionable advocacy pathways and policy recommendations to influence fiscal and budget decisions in Favor of children.
• Policy dialogue and reform efforts are informed by evidence on expenditure efficiency, equity, and financing gaps, contributing to more effective and equitable allocation of public resources for child rights.
• Children benefit from increased, equitable, efficient, and sustainable public investments in education, health, nutrition, social protection
Intended use and users.
• The study is a macro-level, whole-of-government analysis and the necessary first step before sector-specific work. Ministries of finance and planning in each jurisdiction are their primary users, for setting realistic budget ceilings, planning revenue reforms and negotiating on-budget aid.
• Sector ministries (education, health, social affairs) will use it to understand the size and predictability of the resource envelope available to their sectors and the reforms that could expand it, strengthening their budget submissions.
• Parliamentarians, civil society and development partners will use it as a shared evidence base for budget advocacy. Sector-specific fiscal space and expenditure analyses can then build on its findings.
Methodology
The study will use mixed-methods, comparative design that combines fiscal space analysis, domestic resource mobilization (DRM) diagnostics, public expenditure analysis, climate-fiscal risk assessment, and advocacy pathway development. It will integrate quantitative fiscal analysis with qualitative stakeholder perspectives to give a comprehensive picture of the opportunities and constraints for financing children’s rights across the Somalia/Somaliland.
The analytical framework rests on the standard fiscal space expansion model, which has five drivers: (a) economic growth, (ii) domestic revenue mobilization, (iii) expenditure reprioritization and efficiency gains, (iv) deficit financing and debt sustainability, and (v) external grants and transfers. A child-focused public finance analysis complements it to assess the adequacy, equity, efficiency, and sustainability of spending in priority social sectors.
6.1 Inception and Analytical Framework
During inception, the consultant will refine the analytical framework, theory of change, stakeholder mapping, data collection tools, and validation process. The study will be guided by internationally recognized fiscal space and public finance approaches:
• Fiscal Space Frameworks for Children- including UNICEF’S Framework
• IMF Fiscal Space Assessment Approaches
• Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) principles
• Public Expenditure Reviews (PERs)
• Domestic Resource Mobilization Assessment Frameworks
• Child-responsive Budgeting and Public Finance for Children methodologies
6.2 Desk Review and Secondary Data Analysis
The study will begin with a comprehensive desk review of fiscal, economic, and sectoral documentation to establish the fiscal, institutional, and policy context. Sources will include, but are not limited to:
• national and subnational budgets and budget execution reports
• Public Financial Management (PFM) assessments
• revenue and tax administration reports and revenue performance data
• IMF Article IV consultations and World Bank Public Expenditure Reviews
• National Development Plans and sector financing strategies
• existing public expenditure and child rights financing studies
The review will identify historical financing trends, policy reforms, expenditure patterns, institutional bottlenecks, and evidence gaps that require primary data collection.
6.3 Harmonized Fiscal and Financing Database
FGS, the FMS, and Somaliland use different fiscal and reporting cycles. A data normalization exercise will therefore harmonize them into a single fiscal and financing database. This will allow consistent cross-jurisdictional comparison of revenues, expenditures, fiscal balances, and external financing flows. Quantitative analysis will assess trends in DRM, expenditure allocation, fiscal sustainability, and sector financing efficiency, with a focus on opportunities to expand fiscal space for child-focused investment.
6.4 Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) and Stakeholder Consultations
Semi-structured KIIs will complement the desk review. They will be held with Ministries of Finance, Ministries of Planning, revenue authorities, sector ministries, development partners, and civil society organizations across all study jurisdictions. They will gather perspectives on fiscal constraints, resource mobilization opportunities, expenditure prioritization, and the political feasibility of reforms.
6.5 Domestic Resource Mobilization (DRM) Diagnostic
The study will conduct a systematic DRM diagnostic comprising revenue mapping and a revenue potential assessment. it will also examine shadow economy and informal sector contributions to estimate unrealized fiscal potential.
6.6 Public Expenditure and Child Financing Analysis
The consultant will undertake a child-sensitive public finance analysis covering both the volume and the equity of public spending in the key social sectors (education, health, nutrition, social protection, and child protection). The analysis will cover:
• Spending levels
• Spending trends over the last 5–10 years
• Spending composition
• Equity of expenditure patterns
Results will be benchmarked against international standards and comparable fragile-state contexts where feasible. The analysis will identify financing gaps, allocation bottlenecks, and opportunities to improve resource prioritization for children. It will also develop human capital return-on-investment (ROI) scenarios to show the economic returns of investing in child-sensitive sectors.
6.7 Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations Analysis
• Given Somalia’s federal dynamics, the consultant will conduct a dedicated assessment of intergovernmental fiscal relations, including revenue sharing, transfers, and expenditure responsibilities between FGS and the FMS.
6.8 Scenario Modelling and Fiscal Reform Options
• Drawing on the combined fiscal and institutional analysis, the study will develop evidence-based financing scenarios. These will estimate the fiscal gains achievable under different reform pathways and set out DRM options aimed at increasing sustainable public financing for children. The scenarios will feed into sector-specific investment cases that set out the financing gap, the cost of the proposed interventions, the expected returns, and the priority reforms for each key social sector.
6.9 Climate-Fiscal Risk Assessment
Given Somalia’s recurrent droughts, floods, and climate shocks, the study will examine how climate-related risks affect:
• revenue generation
• expenditure pressures
• humanitarian financing needs
• social sector budget
• It will also explore opportunities to integrate resilience and climate-sensitive financing into fiscal planning.
6.10 Political Economy and Feasibility Analysis
The study will not conduct a standalone Political Economy Analysis. It will integrate political economy considerations throughout by drawing on existing Save the Children PEAs, other recent and relevant PEA findings where needed, recent governance studies, and stakeholder consultations. These inputs will inform the identification of realistic fiscal reform entry points, stakeholder incentives, and feasible advocacy pathways. This ensures that recommendations are technically sound and politically feasible in Somalia’s context.
6.11 Validation and Quality Assurance
Findings will be validated through technical review workshops, stakeholder validation meetings, peer review by fiscal and PFM experts, and triangulation of quantitative and qualitative evidence. Validation workshops will be held in Mogadishu, Garowe, and Hargeisa to ensure accuracy, policy relevance, ownership, and contextual fit.
6.12 Advocacy Pathway Development
Based on the findings, the study will develop practical advocacy pathways targeting all key stakeholders, including but not limited to Ministries of Finance, Parliamentarians, Development Partners, Civil Society Organizations, and Sector Ministries.
6.13 Expected Outputs/Deliverables
• Inception Report
• Harmonized Fiscal and Financing Database
• Comparative Fiscal Space Analysis Report
• DRM for Child Rights Analysis Report
• Three Child Rights Public Expenditure Analysis Reports on Federal, Somaliland and Puntland
• Financing Gap and Scenario Modelling Report, including sector investment cases covering Federal, Somaliland and Puntland
• Policy Briefs (3–5)
• Advocacy and Policy Influence Toolkit
• Stakeholder Validation Workshop Report
• Final Consolidated Report, integrating the fiscal space analysis, DRM findings, child rights financing assessment, and advocacy pathways.

Scope of the Study
• Coverage: national fiscal systems and subnational implementation realities, focusing on ministries of finance, planning institutions, revenue authorities, and key sector ministries.
• Period: approximately 5–10 years of fiscal data, depending on availability.
• Financing flows: The study will assess domestic and external financing, on-budget and off-budget, to give a comprehensive picture of total public financing for child-focused services. It will also identify key gaps in fiscal transparency, alignment, and sustainability. Sectors: education, health, nutrition, social protection, and child protection.
• Institutions: The study will focus on public financial systems at the federal and regional levels, including ministries of finance, planning institutions, revenue authorities, and key sector ministries. It will also examine the flow of resources to the priority child-sensitive sectors of education, health, nutrition, and social protection.
• Geographically, the study will be conducted in key administrative and fiscal hubs, including Somalia/Somaliland (Mogadishu), Hargeisa (Somaliland), Garowe (Puntland). These locations are selected due to their central role in budget formulation, revenue administration, and public financial management decision-making processes.
• Excluded: a standalone political economy analysis. The consultant will draw on existing Save the Children PEAs and other recent studies

Stakeholders
The study will engage key stakeholders in line with its objectives on fiscal space analysis, domestic resource mobilization (DRM), child rights financing, and advocacy pathway development of Somalia/land.
• Government Institutions- Ministries of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development will be central to the study, particularly in relation to assessing fiscal space, identifying domestic resource mobilization opportunities, and informing fiscal reform scenarios. Sector ministries (Education, Health, and social affairs will be engaged to support analysis of public expenditure adequacy, efficiency, and alignment with child rights priorities.

• Revenue authorities and tax administrations will contribute to the assessment of domestic revenue performance and identification of revenue enhancement opportunities under the DRM objectives.

• Legislative Institutions- Parliamentary budget and finance committees will be engaged to support understanding of budget approval processes and to identify entry points for influencing fiscal allocations toward child-focused sectors. Their role will be central in translating fiscal evidence into budget advocacy and reform actions.

• Development Partners will be engaged to support analysis of external financing flows, alignment with domestic fiscal systems, and identification of opportunities to improve financing efficiency and sustainability. Their engagement will also support validation of findings and alignment with ongoing fiscal and sector reforms.

• Civil Society and Advocacy Actors- including child rights and budget advocacy groups, will be key stakeholders in validating findings on child-focused expenditure and in translating evidence into advocacy actions. They will play a central role in advancing the study’s objective on developing advocacy pathways for increased domestic financing for children.

• Research and Technical Institutions-Local research institutions and technical experts will support data validation, methodological review, and contextual interpretation of fiscal, sectoral, and financing data to strengthen the credibility and robustness of findings.

• Indirect Beneficiaries- Children and vulnerable populations are the ultimate beneficiaries of the study. Although not directly engaged in primary data collection, their needs and outcomes will be reflected through secondary data analysis and sector financing assessments, particularly in relation to education, health, nutrition, social protection, and child protection services.
Data Sources
• The study will rely on a combination of primary and secondary data sources to ensure comprehensive and comparable fiscal and financing analysis of the Somalia/land.

• Primary data will be collected through key informant interviews and consultations with Ministries of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, sector ministries, revenue authorities, and relevant parliamentary committees. Additional insights will be obtained from development partners, civil society organizations, and technical experts involved in public financial management and child rights financing.

• Secondary data will include national budget documents, budget execution reports, medium-term fiscal frameworks, public expenditure reviews, revenue performance reports, and audit reports where available. The study will also utilize macroeconomic datasets, sector financing reports, and publicly available donor aid data, including on-budget and off-budget external financing flows.

• Where possible, the study will draw on existing databases and statistical sources from government institutions and international financial datasets to support trend analysis and cross-country comparability

Duration and Timeline of the Assignment
Duration
The assignment will be completed within three months
Data Sources
• The study will combine primary and secondary data to ensure a comprehensive and comparable fiscal and financing analysis of Somalia and Somaliland.
• Primary data will come from key informant interviews and consultations with Ministries of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, sector ministries, revenue authorities, and relevant parliamentary committees. Further insights will come from development partners, civil society organizations, and technical experts in public financial management and child rights financing.
• Secondary data will include national budget documents, budget execution reports, medium-term fiscal frameworks, public expenditure reviews, revenue performance reports, and audit reports where available. It will also include macroeconomic datasets, sector financing reports, and publicly available donor aid data, covering on-budget and off-budget external financing flows.
• Where possible, the study will draw on existing government databases and international financial datasets to support trend analysis and cross-country comparability.
4. Tasks, Activities, and Timeline
The assignment will be 3 months.
Phase 1: Inception and Design.
• Inception meetings and detailed desk review
• Finalization of the methodology and data collection tools
• Development of the analytical framework and stakeholder mapping
Phase 2: Data Collection and Harmonization.
• Collect fiscal, revenue, and expenditure data from Ministries of Finance, Planning, and revenue authorities in Mogadishu, Hargeisa, and Garowe
• Conduct KIIs with government, donors, and sector actors.
• Compile domestic revenue and external financing datasets.
• Harmonize fiscal data across regions and develop the integrated fiscal and financing database.
• Conduct an overview-level child-sensitive public finance analysis of trends in the share and equity of spending on education, health, nutrition, and social protection, across geography, gender, displacement, and disability. This will be the basis for the later sector-specific analyses.
• Conduct data quality review and validation checks.
Phase 3: Analysis and Drafting.
• Fiscal space analysis, DRM assessment, and child-focused public expenditure analysis
• Scenario modelling and sector investment cases
• Development of policy and advocacy outputs
Phase 4: Validation and Finalization.
• Validation workshops and consultations in Hargeisa, Garowe, and Mogadishu, covering Somalia/Somaliland.
• Incorporation of feedback from government, development partners, and civil society
• Finalization of the DRM analysis, the child rights financing assessment, and all research products
The consultancy will also produce all final knowledge products: the comparative fiscal space report, the DRM analysis, the child rights financing assessment, factsheets on the research findings, PowerPoint presentations of the findings, policy briefs, and advocacy materials ready for dissemination and policy engagement.
Consultant Qualifications and Experience.
Education
• Master’s degree in economics, public finance, development economics, public policy, or a related field. A PhD is an advantage.
Professional experience
• At least 10 years of experience in fiscal analysis, public financial management (PFM), or public finance research, including fiscal space analysis and domestic resource mobilization (DRM).
• Proven experience conducting public expenditure analysis or public expenditure reviews, ideally in education, health, nutrition, or social protection.
• Demonstrated experience with child-responsive budgeting or public finance for children, preferably using the UNICEF Fiscal Space for Children framework.
• Experience in fiscal scenario modelling, including financing gap analysis and return-on-investment or investment case development.
• Experience building and harmonizing fiscal datasets from sources with different reporting cycles.
• Experience in fragile, conflict-affected, or federal contexts, preferably in Somalia/Somaliland. Familiarity with the fiscal systems of the Somalia/Somaliland is a strong advantage.
• Experience engaging ministries of finance, planning institutions, revenue authorities, and parliamentary committees, and conducting KIIs and validation workshops with them.
• Experience developing policy briefs and advocacy materials for government and development partner audiences.
• At least 3 comparable studies completed in the last 5-7 years, with references or samples.

Applications can be submitted by: Protected Email box below • Email should be addressed to Somalia.Tenders@savethechildren.org • Should you need any clarifications please direct your queries to Somalia.procurement@savethechildren.org and expect responses within maximum of two working days. • Note – this is a sealed tender box which will not be opened until the tender has closed. Therefore, do not send tender related questions to this email address as they will not be answered. The subject of the email should be TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR FISCAL SPACE ANALYSIS FOR SOMALIA/SOMALILAND • All attached documents should be clearly labelled so it is clear to understand what each file relates to. • Emails should not exceed 15mb – if the file sizes are large, please split the submission into two emails. • Do not copy other SCI email addresses into the email when you submit it as this will invalidate your bid.