A Consultancy for a Project-Shaping Resilience Analysis BMZ Transitional Development Assistance (TDA) Somalia – Afmadow District (Jubaland State) position is currently open at humedica with the duty station in Afmadow. This position is within the Consultancies sector. Submit your application by Jun, 14 to be considered for this role.
Terms of Reference (ToR)
Consultancy for a Project-Shaping Resilience Analysis
BMZ Transitional Development Assistance (TDA)
Somalia – Afmadow District (Jubaland State)
Humedica e. V., in partnership with a local partner organization, is currently developing a multi-year resilience and climate adaptation project for submission under the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) framework for Transitional Development Assistance (TDA).
The proposed intervention, titled: “Strengthening Climate Resilience and Inclusive Community Structures for Vulnerable Households in Afmadow District, Somalia” is expected to be implemented between January 2027 and December 2029 in Afmadow District, Jubaland State, Somalia.
The overall project objective is: Vulnerable households and local governance structures in Afmadow District strengthen their resilience to climate-related shocks and stressors through diversified and climate-resilient livelihoods, sustainable water resource management, improved food and nutrition security, and inclusive, conflict-sensitive community governance mechanisms.
The intervention is expected to contribute to strengthening absorptive, adaptive and transformative resilience capacities at household, community and institutional levels among populations exposed to recurrent climate shocks, environmental degradation, displacement dynamics, conflict-related risks and protracted humanitarian stressors.
In line with BMZ requirements for Structural Transitional Aid, the project design must be informed by a project-shaping resilience analysis.
The assignment is expected to apply a systems-oriented resilience lens that analyses the interlinkages between climate risks, conflict dynamics, governance challenges, social exclusion and livelihood vulnerabilities in order to identify integrated and sustainable resilience pathways.
The resilience analysis is expected to:
Purpose of the Assignment
The purpose of this consultancy is to support humedica e. V. and its local implementing partner in conducting a high-quality, BMZ-compliant, project-shaping resilience analysis for the proposed intervention in Afmadow District.
The assignment is expected to critically assess and refine the existing project concept and generate practical recommendations for strengthening the project’s resilience logic, sector integration, conflict sensitivity and sustainability.
The resilience analysis is expected to serve as the analytical foundation for the project’s Theory of Change, outcome structure, targeting approach and results framework.
The analysis should contribute to the development of a robust and evidence-based project design that aligns with the context (and inter-contexts) of the project area, and that in particular considers the following:
The resilience analysis should further support an integrated HDP Nexus approach by identifying opportunities to strengthen linkages between humanitarian response, longer-term development approaches and conflict-sensitive peace-oriented programming.
Objectives of the Resilience Analysis
- Analyse the humanitarian, climate, socio-economic and governance context in Afmadow District.
- Identify major shocks, stressors and drivers of vulnerability affecting target populations.
- Assess absorptive, adaptive and transformative resilience capacities at household, community and institutional levels and the linkages within and between these levels.
- Analyse structural barriers affecting vulnerable and marginalized groups, including women, youth, IDPs and minority groups.
- Assess local governance systems, social cohesion dynamics and conflict-related risks.
- Identify resilience gaps relevant to the proposed intervention sectors.
- Assess the extent to which the current project concept adequately addresses identified resilience challenges.
- Develop recommendations to strengthen the intervention logic, resilience pathways and results framework.
- Contribute to the refinement of the project Theory of Change and outcome structure.
Scope of Work
4.1 Inception Phase
4.2 Desk Review
Review relevant literature, assessments, project documents and secondary data sources relevant to resilience, climate risks, governance, conflict dynamics and humanitarian vulnerabilities in Somalia and Jubaland State.
4.3 Context and Systems Analysis
Conduct a context analysis covering:
The analysis should identify interlinkages between humanitarian vulnerabilities, climate risks, governance challenges, conflict dynamics and systems constraints.
4.4 Shock, Stressor and Vulnerability Analysis
Identify and prioritize:
4.5 Resilience Capacity Analysis
Assess existing and missing:
The analysis should assess:
4.6 Conflict Sensitivity and Do-No-Harm Analysis
Assess potential risks and unintended negative impacts associated with the intervention, including exclusion risks, clan and power dynamics, elite capture, resource competition, tensions between IDPs and host communities, gender-related risks and risks associated with aid targeting and resource allocation.
4.7 Stakeholder Consultation and Validation
Conduct consultations with relevant stakeholders and facilitate at least one validation workshop.
4.8 Project Design and Strategic Recommendations
Based on the analysis, provide recommendations regarding:
The consultant/team shall ensure that analytical findings are systematically translated into operational recommendations, resilience pathways, intervention sequencing and measurable project outcomes.
Methodology
The consultancy is expected to apply a participatory and mixed-methods approach combining:
The methodology should ensure triangulation of qualitative and quantitative findings and apply conflict-sensitive and gender-responsive data collection approaches.
For the purpose of this assignment, systems analysis refers to the assessment of institutional, governance, service delivery, market, social and community-level structures influencing resilience outcomes.
The methodology should align with:
6.
Expected Deliverables
Suggested Structure of the Final Report
Executive Summary
Introduction and Methodology
Context Analysis
Political Economy and Governance Analysis
Climate and Environmental Risk Analysis
Shock and Stressor Analysis
Conflict Sensitivity and Peace & Conflict Assessment
Livelihoods and Socioeconomic Systems Analysis
Gender and Social Inclusion Analysis
Vulnerability and Exposure Analysis
Resilience Capacities Analysis (Absorptive, Adaptive, Transformative Capacity)
Institutional, Service Delivery and Systems Analysis
Social Cohesion and Community Dynamics
Scenario and Future Risk Analysis
Resilience Gaps and System Constraints
Strategic Recommendations for Project Design
Resilience Pathways and Theory of Change Refinement
Implications for Results Framework and Indicators
Assumptions, Risks and Limitations
Annexes
Duration and Timeline
The assignment is expected to be conducted between June and July 2026.
The estimated level of effort is approximately 20-25 working days.
Reporting and Coordination
The consultant/team will report to:
Project Manager, humedica e. V.
Group Lead Africa & LAC, humedica e. V.
The assignment will be implemented in close coordination with:
- Background
- identify the key shocks, stressors and vulnerabilities affecting target populations and institutions,
- assess resilience capacities and systemic gaps,
- analyse climate, governance and conflict-related risks,
- identify resilience pathways and opportunities for systems strengthening,
- and directly inform the intervention logic, resilience pathways, sequencing, Theory of Change, targeting strategy, implementation approach, assumptions and results framework of the proposed project.
- BMZ Transitional Development Assistance priorities,
- resilience and HDP Nexus approaches,
- climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction frameworks,
- conflict-sensitive and inclusive programming principles,
- and locally driven systems strengthening approaches.
- Review and refine the assignment methodology.
- Develop an inception note including workplan, methodology, analytical framework and stakeholder engagement approach.
- Conduct a kick-off meeting with humedica e. V. and local implementing partner.
- climate and environmental risks,
- drought and flood dynamics,
- livelihoods and socio-economic systems,
- water access and resource governance,
- food and nutrition security,
- displacement dynamics,
- local governance systems,
- social cohesion and community structures,
- gender and social inclusion,
- conflict and political economy dynamics,
- and access to basic services.
- acute shocks,
- chronic stressors,
- climate-related risks,
- conflict-related risks,
- economic and market-related vulnerabilities,
- governance-related vulnerabilities,
- and risks related to displacement and exclusion.
- absorptive capacities,
- adaptive capacities,
- transformative capacities at household, community and institutional levels.
- coping mechanisms,
- institutional functionality,
- social support systems,
- local governance mechanisms,
- early warning, preparedness and anticipatory systems;
- and opportunities for systems strengthening.
- resilience pathways and intervention prioritization,
- climate-resilient livelihoods and systems strengthening approaches,
- governance and conflict-sensitive implementation mechanisms,
- targeting, localization and sustainability strategies,
- Theory of Change refinement and results framework recommendations.
- desk review,
- key informant interviews (KIIs),
- focus group discussions (FGDs),
- stakeholder consultations,
- resilience and vulnerability mapping,
- systems analysis,
- political economy analysis,
- conflict-sensitive analysis,
- and participatory validation approaches.
- BMZ expectations for project-shaping resilience analysis,
- resilience and HDP Nexus programming approaches,
- conflict-sensitive and Do-No-Harm principles,
- and locally led and inclusive programming approaches.
- Inception Report
- Draft Resilience Analysis Report
- Resilience Matrix
- Draft Theory of Change and Resilience Pathways Inputs
- Validation Workshop
- Final Resilience Analysis Report
- Final Presentation Slides
- Humedica e. V.
- local implementing partner
- technical project staff
- and relevant stakeholders.
About Afmadow
Somalia is located in the Horn of Africa and has a growing job market, particularly in the humanitarian, development, and private sectors. Major employment hubs include Mogadishu, Hargeisa, Garowe, Baidoa, and Kismayo, with opportunities from international NGOs, UN agencies, government institutions, and an expanding private sector.
Ereyada Soomaaliga (Somali Keywords): La-talinta • Shaqo Soomaaliya • Shaqo Cusub • La-talin