Baseline Assessment for the Climate Resilient Eastern African Transboundary Water Management for Environmental Sustainability (CREATES) Programme

Terms of Reference

Title: Baseline Assessment for the Climate Resilient Eastern African Transboundary Water Management for Environmental Sustainability (CREATES) Programme

Objective of the Consultancy

This consultancy has the following objective(s):

Overall Objective

To conduct a comprehensive baseline assessment and Results Framework validation for the CREATES Programme to establish credible baseline values, validate programme indicators and measurement approaches, and provide an evidence base for effective programme implementation, monitoring, learning, evaluation and adaptive management.

Specific Objectives

The consultancy shall specifically**:**

1. Establish baseline values for all indicators in the CREATES Results Framework using appropriate qualitative and quantitative methods.
2. Validate the programme Results Framework, including indicator definitions, measurement methodologies, data sources, assumptions, and means of verification, and recommend improvements where necessary.
3. Establish basin-level baseline values for the programme's impact indicator on Achievement of SDG Target 6.5 on Transboundary Water Management, including assessment of the four contributing scoring dimensions.
4. Assess the feasibility of achieving the targeted basin level 10% improvement contribution to the SDG 6.5 impact indicator and recommend strategic areas of focus to maximise programme results.
5. Validate existing programme data from stakeholders’ workshops and ground truthing and assess its quality, reliability, and suitability for establishing programme baselines.
6. Generate evidence-based recommendations to strengthen programme monitoring, data management, adaptive management, learning, evaluation and results measurement throughout the programme implementation period.

Background

Project Reference: P04608

About IUCN

IUCN is a membership Union uniquely composed of both government and civil society organisations. It provides public, private and non-governmental organisations with the knowledge and tools that enable human progress, economic development and nature conservation to take place together.

Created in 1948, IUCN is now the world’s largest and most diverse environmental network, harnessing the knowledge, resources and reach of more than 1,400 Member organisations and around 15,000 experts. It is a leading provider of conservation data, assessments and analysis. Its broad membership enables IUCN to fill the role of incubator and trusted repository of best practices, tools and international standards.

IUCN provides a neutral space in which diverse stakeholders including governments, NGOs, scientists, businesses, local communities, indigenous peoples organisations and others can work together to forge and implement solutions to environmental challenges and achieve sustainable development.

Working with many partners and supporters, IUCN implements a large and diverse portfolio of conservation projects worldwide. Combining the latest science with the traditional knowledge of local communities, these projects work to reverse habitat loss, restore ecosystems and improve people’s well-being.

www.iucn.org

https://twitter.com/IUCN/

About the Project

The Climate Resilient Eastern African Transboundary Water Management for Environmental Sustainability (CREATES) Programme is a five-year regional initiative (2026-2030) funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark with a budget of DKK 300 million as Denmark's contribution to the European Union's Team Europe Initiative (TEI) on Transboundary Water Management (TWM) in Africa. The programme seeks to improve the effectiveness of transboundary water management in Eastern Africa to enhance water security, climate resilience, regional cooperation, and sustainable development in selected transboundary river basins.

CREATES is implemented jointly by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and UNEP-DHI Centre for Water and Environment through two complementary projects that collectively contribute to a common programme objective. The programme focuses on two transboundary river basins: the Mara Basin, shared between Kenya and Tanzania, and the Sio-Malaba-Malakisi (SMM) Basin, shared between Kenya and Uganda. These basins were selected due to their ecological significance, socio-economic importance, existing transboundary cooperation mechanisms, and the urgent need to strengthen climate-resilient and sustainable water resources management.

The programme responds to persistent challenges affecting transboundary water management in Eastern Africa, including inadequate hydrological and environmental data, limited decision-support systems, weak institutional and governance capacities, insufficient cross-border coordination, inadequate financing for transboundary water investments, and low adoption of climate-resilient Nature-based Solutions (NbS). Through strengthening institutional capacity, improving access to decision-support tools and knowledge, enhancing governance arrangements, promoting collaborative water resources management, and supporting investments in climate-resilient water infrastructure and NbS, CREATES aims to contribute to improved water security and resilience across the target basins.

The Programme seeks to achieve the following four immediate outcomes:

• Outcome A1: Water agencies, River Basin Organisations (RBOs), and regional bodies conduct effective climate-resilient transboundary water resources management through improved technical capacity and decision-support tools.
• Outcome A2: Water agencies, RBOs and regional bodies implement and share improved climate-resilient Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) practices.
• Outcome B1: Governance arrangements for transboundary water management are strengthened, enabling institutions to effectively deliver on their mandates, operationalise policy and regulatory frameworks, mobilise resources, and support policy dialogue and conflict prevention.
• Outcome B2: Climate-resilient water infrastructure combined with Nature-based Solutions contributes to inclusive and sustainable water management and economic development within targeted river basins and communities.

Description of the Assignment

Purpose

The purpose of the baseline assessment is to establish a comprehensive and credible evidence base to inform the implementation, monitoring, adaptive management, learning, and evaluation of the Climate Resilient Eastern African Transboundary Water Management for Environmental Sustainability (CREATES) Programme over its implementation period.

Specifically, the baseline assessment will establish baseline values for all indicators contained in the CREATES Results Framework, validate the programme's indicator definitions, measurement methodologies, data sources, assumptions, and targets, and assess the availability, quality, and reliability of existing data to support results-based management.

The assessment will also establish basin-level baseline values for the programme's impact indicator on Achievement of SDG Target 6.5 on Transboundary Water Management using the programme-specific SDG 6.5 transboundary assessment methodology. The assessment will calculate the impact indicator as the average of the transboundary-related scores under SDG 6.5.1 and the SDG 6.5.2 scores. For each target basin, the assessment shall determine the transboundary-related score based on the four transboundary dimensions of the SDG 6.5.1 survey, namely:

1. Arrangements for transboundary cooperation,
2. Organisational framework,
3. Data and information sharing, and
4. Financing for transboundary cooperation.

In addition, the consultancy will assess the feasibility of achieving the programme's targeted 10% improvement in the impact indicator by analysing the performance of each scoring dimension, identifying key drivers, gaps, and constraints, and recommending strategic areas of focus to maximise programme impact and contribute to improved transboundary water management.

The baseline assessment will further validate existing programme data and evidence, generate robust quantitative and qualitative baseline information across the programme's intervention areas, and provide recommendations to strengthen the Results Framework, indicator measurement, data collection methodologies, and monitoring systems. The findings will serve as the reference point against which programme progress, performance, outcomes, and impact will be measured throughout the life of the CREATES Programme, while also informing evidence-based decision-making, adaptive management, continuous learning, and programme improvement.

Scope of the Assignment

The consultancy shall undertake a comprehensive baseline assessment and Results Framework validation for the CREATES Programme covering all programme outcomes, outputs, and indicators across the programme implementation areas in the Mara and Sio-Malaba-Malakisi (SMM) transboundary river basins. The assignment shall adopt a regional perspective and encompass relevant stakeholders at regional, national, basin, sub-national, and community levels, as appropriate.

The scope of the consultancy shall include the following activities, but not be limited to:

Review of Programme Documentation

Undertake a comprehensive review of all relevant programme documentation to develop a thorough understanding of the programme design, implementation approach, results framework, theory of change, monitoring framework, and existing evidence.

Baseline Assessment

The consultancy shall establish baseline values for all indicators contained in the CREATES Results Framework using robust qualitative and quantitative methods. The assessment shall generate reliable baseline information against which programme progress and results will be measured throughout the implementation period. Where baseline information already exists, the consultant shall validate its quality, relevance, completeness, and applicability before recommending its adoption or proposing updated baseline values based on evidence generated during the assessment.

Results Framework and Indicator Validation

Informed by evidence from the data collected during baseline assessment, the consultancy in consultation with CREATES programme team and MEL team shall review and validate the programme Results Framework to ensure that indicators are clearly defined, measurable, practical, and aligned with the programme's intended results. This shall include verification of indicator definitions, measurement methodologies, means of verification, data sources, assumptions, disaggregation requirements, frequency of data collection, and calculation methods. The consultant shall also develop or refine Performance Indicator Reference Sheets (PIRS) for all programme indicators to ensure standardised indicator definitions and measurement. Where necessary, the consultant shall recommend revisions to strengthen the Results Framework while maintaining alignment with the approved programme design.

SDG 6.5 Impact Indicator Assessment

The consultancy shall establish basin-level baseline values for the programme's impact indicator, Achievement of SDG Target 6.5 on Transboundary Water Management, using the programme-specific methodology derived from the SDG 6.5 monitoring framework. The assessment shall establish baseline scores for each target basin by analysing the transboundary-related dimensions of SDG Indicator 6.5.1 together with the SDG Indicator 6.5.2 scores to generate the overall programme impact baseline.

The consultancy shall also assess the feasibility of achieving the programme's targeted 10% improvement by analysing the contributing scoring dimensions, identifying opportunities and constraints, and providing evidence-based recommendations to inform programme implementation, learning, adaptive management, and progress towards the intended impact.

Validation of Existing Data and Evidence

The consultancy shall review, verify, and validate existing programme data and information generated during programme design and inception. This shall include assessing data quality, consistency, reliability, completeness, and suitability for establishing programme baselines and supporting future monitoring and reporting.

Stakeholder Consultations

The consultancy shall undertake inclusive stakeholder consultations involving relevant regional organisations, government institutions, river basin organisations, implementing partners, civil society organisations, local communities, development partners, and other key stakeholders to validate findings, strengthen evidence generation, and ensure ownership of the baseline results.

Geospatial Analysis and GIS Mapping

The consultancy shall integrate geospatial analysis into the baseline assessment to support spatial understanding of the programme intervention areas and establish a georeferenced baseline for monitoring programme implementation and outcomes. The consultant shall compile, review, validate, and analyse available spatial datasets and generate GIS products that support evidence-based planning, monitoring, and decision-making.

Where appropriate, the consultant shall collect GPS coordinates of sampled sites and interventions and integrate these with existing spatial datasets to produce maps and spatial analyses of the programme areas.

Recommendations for Programme Implementation, learning and adaptive management

Based on the findings of the assessment, the consultancy shall provide practical, evidence-based recommendations to strengthen programme implementation, indicator measurement, monitoring systems, data quality, target achievement, learning, and adaptive management. The recommendations shall identify priority actions to improve programme performance, enhance data-driven decision-making, strengthen results-based management, and support continuous learning and adaptation throughout programme implementation. The consultant shall also recommend measures to address identified gaps, mitigate potential risks, and enhance the likelihood of achieving the intended programme outcomes and impact.

Data Ownership and Confidentiality

Data ownership and confidentiality of all raw data, datasets, interview transcripts, and final reports collected or produced under this consultancy remain the sole property of IUCN. The consultant must ensure strict compliance with all applicable national data protection and privacy laws in the programme countries, including Kenya's Data Protection Act, 2019, Uganda's Data Protection and Privacy Act, 2019, and Tanzania's Personal Data Protection Act, 2022, regarding the informed consent, anonymity, lawful processing, secure storage, transfer, and disposal of respondent data, particularly concerning vulnerable groups, women, and youth. The consultant shall ensure that all personal data are collected, processed, stored, shared, and retained in accordance with the applicable legal requirements and recognised international standards for data protection and confidentiality.

Methodology

The consultancy shall propose a robust, scientifically sound, and participatory methodology that is appropriate for the objectives and scope of this assignment. The methodology should employ a mixed-methods approach, integrating both quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis techniques to ensure comprehensive, reliable, and triangulated findings. The methodology shall clearly describe the sampling approach, data collection methods and tools, quality assurance and quality control measures, data analysis procedures, and ethical considerations. It should also demonstrate how the consultant will validate the Results Framework and indicator definitions, establish credible baseline values for all programme indicators, assess the SDG 6.5 impact indicator, and ensure that findings are evidence-based, representative, and suitable for informing programme implementation, monitoring, learning, and evaluation.

The proposed methodology should be practical, technically rigorous, and aligned with internationally recognised standards and good practices for baseline assessments and results-based monitoring and evaluation.

Technical Proposal Format and Page Limits

Section

Maximum Pages

Understanding of the Assignment-2 pages

Technical Approach and Methodology (including sampling strategy, quality assurance, and GIS approach)-6 pages

Work plan and delivery schedule-2 pages

Team composition as stated in ToR and relevant Experience-3 pages

Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures-1 page

Total Page Number for the Technical Proposal *(excluding annexes)-*14 pages maximum

Duration of the Assignment

The assignment is expected to be completed within 14 weeks maximum from the date of contract signature. The final timeline will be agreed during contract negotiation and confirmed in the inception report.

Deliverables and Activities

The consultant will provide the following deliverables and carry out the following activities:

Inception Report

**Deadline/Timelines-**Within 10 working days of contract signature

An inception report detailing the consultant's understanding of the assignment, refined methodology, work plan, sampling strategy, data collection tools, stakeholder engagement plan, quality assurance measures, ethical considerations, GIS approach, and implementation schedule.

Deadline/Timelines-Week 8

Data Collection Completion Report and Preliminary Findings

Completion of desk review, validation of existing programme data, field data collection, stakeholder consultations, GIS data compilation, and submission of a brief report summarising fieldwork undertaken, data collected, preliminary findings, challenges encountered, and any adjustments made.

Deadline/Timelines-Week 11

Draft Baseline Assessment and Results Framework Validation Report

Submission of the draft baseline report presenting baseline values for all programme indicators, validation of the Results Framework, SDG 6.5 impact assessment, GIS outputs, analysis of findings, assessment of target feasibility, recommendations for programme implementation, learning and adaptive management, together with draft datasets and supporting annexes.

Deadline/Timelines-Week 13

Validation Workshop and Final Baseline Report

Facilitation of a stakeholder validation workshop, incorporation of comments received, and submission of the final baseline assessment and Results Framework validation report together with an executive summary, presentation slides, clean datasets, GIS database and maps, metadata, and all data collection tools.

Deadline/Timelines-Week 14

Final Data Package and Handover

Submission of the complete baseline package, including cleaned quantitative and qualitative datasets, GIS files, indicator reference sheets, final presentation, and all source files. Conduct a knowledge transfer session with the CREATES programme team on the baseline findings, data management, and recommendations for monitoring, learning, and adaptive management.

Payment Schedule

The below summarises the chronological order of deliverables and indicates milestones at which IUCN will pay the Consultant.

Deliverable and milestone payment

Inception Report-20%

Data Collection Completion Report, Preliminary Findings, Draft Baseline Assessment, Results Framework Validation Report-45%

Validation Workshop, Final Baseline Report, Final Data Package and Handover-35%

Skills and Experience

The assignment may be undertaken by a consulting firm or a team of consultants. The proposed team shall collectively demonstrate the required expertise outlined below. Bidders may determine the most appropriate team composition, provided all required competencies are adequately covered, demonstrated and clearly justified.

Team Leader: Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL) Specialist

• Master's degree or higher in Monitoring and Evaluation, Development Studies, Statistics, Natural Resource Management, Environmental Science, Water Resources Management, or a related field.
• Minimum of 10 years of experience leading baseline assessments, evaluations, or research studies for donor-funded programmes.
• Demonstrated experience in results-based management, indicator development and validation, and mixed-methods research.
• Proven experience in designing and implementing quantitative and qualitative assessments.
• Excellent analytical, facilitation, and report-writing skills.
• Experience working on regional and/or transboundary programmes in Eastern Africa will be an added advantage.

The team leader will be supported by experts in the following thematic areas:

Transboundary Water Governance / Natural Resources Management Specialist

• Master's degree in water resources management, Environmental Management, Natural Resource Management, Hydrology, Environmental Governance, or a related field.
• Minimum of 8 years of relevant professional experience.
• Demonstrated expertise in Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), transboundary water governance, and environmental policy.
• Experience in climate resilience and institutional strengthening for natural resource management.
• Experience working within transboundary river basin programmes in Eastern Africa is desirable.

Statistician / Quantitative Research Specialist

• Bachelor's degree in Statistics, Economics, Mathematics, Data Science, or a related field (master’s degree preferred).
• Minimum of 7 years of experience in survey design, sampling, quantitative research, and statistical analysis.
• Proficiency in statistical software such as SPSS, Stata, R, or equivalent.
• Demonstrated experience managing and analysing large datasets.
• Experience supporting baseline assessments, evaluations, or impact studies.

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) and Water Infrastructure Specialist

• Master’s degree in civil engineering, Water Resources Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Natural Resource Management, Environmental Science, or a related field.
• Minimum of 7 years of experience in the design, implementation, or evaluation of climate-resilient water infrastructure and Nature-based Solutions (NbS).
• Demonstrated knowledge of ecosystem-based approaches, watershed management, and climate adaptation.
• Experience in water resources management and sustainable infrastructure planning.
• Experience working on donor-funded environmental or transboundary water programmes in Eastern Africa will be an added advantage.

Geospatial Analysis and GIS Mapping Specialist

• Master's degree in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Geomatics, Remote Sensing, Geography, Geospatial Engineering, Surveying, Environmental Science, Natural Resource Management, or a related field.
• Minimum of 7 years of demonstrated experience in geospatial analysis, GIS mapping, spatial data management, and remote sensing, particularly in environmental, natural resource management, water resources, climate resilience, or development programmes.
• Demonstrated experience in integrating geospatial analysis into baseline studies, assessments, monitoring and evaluation, or research projects, including the compilation, validation, analysis, and interpretation of spatial datasets.
• Experience in integrating field-collected spatial data with satellite imagery, remote sensing products, and existing geospatial datasets to support evidence-based planning and decision-making.
• Experience in developing geospatial databases and spatial products for programme planning, monitoring, reporting, and decision support.

Requirement: The consulting firm or team of consultants should demonstrate the capacity to effectively undertake assignments in the countries where the CREATES Programme is implemented (Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda). The team will be required to travel to programme sites across these countries to conduct data collection, stakeholder consultations, and validation of findings.

Supervision and coordination

The consultant will report directly to the CREATES Team Lead, who will provide overall technical oversight, guidance, and coordination throughout the assignment. The consultant will work closely with the CREATES Programme team and other relevant technical staff to ensure effective planning, implementation, and stakeholder engagement.

Quality assurance of all technical deliverables will be undertaken by the PMEAL Officer, who will review deliverables to ensure methodological rigour, data quality, consistency, and alignment with the programme's Results Framework and monitoring requirements. All deliverables shall be submitted to the CREATES Team Lead and will be considered accepted only upon satisfactory review and approval by IUCN.