Consultancy Services for URBANISE Project Pre-Post Evaluation with Contribution Lens

BRCiS Consortium URBANISE Project Pre-post Evaluation with Contribution Lens Terms of Reference Background and Context Information 1.1 BRCiS Consortium Overview Building Resilient Communities in Somalia (BRCiS) is a consortium of national and international organizations – Action Against Hunger (ACF), Concern Worldwide (Concern), GREDO, the International Rescue Committee (IRC), KAALO, Save the Children, and Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) as lead agency. BRCiS’ objective is to work across the humanitarian-development divide, supporting marginalized communities in disaster-prone, rural Somalia to become more resilient to shocks and stressed, including as a result of climate change. BRCiS approach is contextually adaptive, focused on the specific shocks, needs, and priorities of individual communities. BRCiS was established in 2013 and is now implementing projects funded by multiple humanitarian and development donors in more than ten regions of Somalia [1] . BRCiS Consortium operates through three streamlined governance structures: (1) The Steering Committee (Country Directors and Consortium management team) provides strategic direction and high-level decision making, (2) The Consortium Management Unit (CMU) serves as the central coordinating body, responsible for business design, implementation coordination, technical support, monitoring and evaluation, quality assurance, compliance, due diligence, and reporting, while (3) Implementing Partners deliver programs on the ground - managing community engagement, field operations, monitoring, and quality assurance. This structure ensures both strategic oversight and effective implementation. URBANISE leverages a broad spectrum of expertise, research and learning, and well-established governance structures, drawing from the successful BRCiS Consortium. This specific project led by Save the Children Danmark (SCD) and integrating the field-based presence and contextual expertise of Save the Children Somalia, NRC, and GREDO, each with deep local insights into the targeted locations. URBANISE incorporates a unique governance arrangement for the BRCiS Consortium with SCD as the lead agency and shared consortium management responsibilities between NRC and Save the Children Somalia. This arrangement strategically enables BRCiS to benefit equally from the existing and extensive consortium management experience of the BRCiS Consortium and SCD’s deep experience working with Danish funding including a broad network of connections in Copenhagen that can provide additional profile to the project and open strategic advocacy pathways 1.2 URBANISE Project Context Somalia faces East Africa's worst displacement crisis, with climate shocks and conflict driving mass urbanization (4.3% annual growth). Target cities exemplify these pressures: Baidoa (649,465 IDPs) battles malnutrition and floods, while Kismayo (187,479 IDPs) suffers land conflicts amid clan tensions. Burao confronts acute water scarcity, and Laascaanood struggles with post-conflict recovery. All locations share critical vulnerabilities: 70% youth unemployment, widespread illiteracy (48% of Baidoa's female IDPs lack basic numeracy), and insecure land tenure that discourages investment. Climate change intensifies these challenges – projected 2.5°C warming will worsen droughts and floods, with urban IDP settlements disproportionately exposed due to poor drainage and deforestation. Women and minorities face compounded barriers, including limited access to early warnings and financial services. However, emerging opportunities exist, including strong clan-based hosting traditions in Dhusamareb, a growing green economy (40+ solar firms nationally), and youth eager for skills training. The URBANISE project targets these systemic gaps through nature-based solutions, inclusive governance, and market-responsive livelihoods programming. 1.3 Overview of the URBANISE Project The URBANISE (Urban Resilience Building through Adaptation and Inclusive Socioeconomic Empowerment) project represents a three and a half-year initiative (June 2025 to December 2028) funded by Danish Representation to Somalia and designed to contribute to urban resilience towards climate shocks across five Somali cities facing severe displacement pressures. The project is implemented by the BRCiS Consortium: Save the Children, Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) and GREDO in Baidoa, Kismayo, Dhusamareb, Burao, and Laascaanood. The project inception phase runs from June to December 2025, and the baseline is planned to commence within this period as detailed in section 5. The project’s Theory of Change articulates a structured pathway for enhancing urban resilience by targeting three key outcomes: strengthening inclusive municipal governance systems to effectively advocate for and manage community-driven priorities that foster self-reliance (Outcome 1), expanding livelihood and financial inclusion opportunities for displaced populations (Outcome 2) and implementing nature-based solutions to mitigate climate risks and support individual wellbeing (Outcome 3). Through these interventions, URBANISE aims to contribute to enhanced self-reliance and adaptive capacity of urban and peri-urban communities, particularly internally displaced populations against climatic shocks (Objective). 2.0 Purpose, Scope and Objectives 2.1 Purpose The URBANISE project will conduct pre-post longitudinal evaluation (baseline, midline, endline) to systematically measure changes in project logframe indicators among target communities over the project lifecycle, June 2025 to December 2028 . Using contribution analysis, the evaluation will assess the project’s role in observed results (both intended and unintended changes) while accounting for contextual factors, generating evidence to inform adaptive management, enhance accountability to stakeholders, and identify scalable approaches for future programming. N.B: This evaluation adopts a longitudinal pre-post design (baseline-midline-endline) to systematically measure changes in logframe KPIs and assess URBANISE's contribution to observed outcomes through rigorous contribution analysis. Given the complex urban displacement context in Somalia and ethical considerations, the methodology deliberately focuses on: (1) tracking logframe key performance indicators (KPIs) progress against established targets; (2) analyzing the project's role alongside contextual factors; and (3) identifying lessons for adaptive management. Baseline Survey Objectives Establish pre-intervention benchmarks across all URBANISE logframe KPIs (including self-reliance index [2] , climate resilience index [3] , and Livelihood Coping Strategies Index (LCSI) ). The baseline survey will serve as the foundation for subsequent midline and endline surveys. Data will be disaggregated by location, gender, age, and displacement status. Understand contextual factors and risks that may affect the project implementation. Provide actionable recommendations, ensuring interventions remain contextually relevant and aligned with target DACs needs from the outset. Midline Survey Objectives Measure project interim progress against logframe key performance indicators, including the Self-Reliance Index, Climate Resilience Index, and Livelihood Coping Strategies Index (LCSI) by comparing midline results with baseline values to identify areas where the project is on track to meet targets and where adjustments may be needed. Employ contribution analysis methodologies (outcome harvesting) and participatory discussions with DACs, to systematically assess the project's contribution to observed changes, document both intended outcomes and unanticipated effects (positive or negative). Identify lessons learned and actionable recommendations for improving implementation in the remaining project period including course-correction strategies for underperforming activities and scalable approaches for successful interventions. Endline Survey Objectives Assess the project's success in meeting its established targets and overall impact on target DACs through comprehensive analysis of project logframe indicators (Including Self-Reliance Index, Climate Resilience Index, Livelihood Coping Strategies Index), longitudinal comparison of baseline, midline, and endline data disaggregated assessment of outcomes by gender, age, location and displacement status. Conduct rigorous contribution analysis by utilizing mixed methods approaches, including outcome harvesting to systematically document both intended and unintended changes and who has contributed, participatory discussions with DACs to capture lived experiences and perform comparative data analysis. Generate actionable learning for Future Programming by identifying high-impact interventions suitable for scaling and contextual factors that enabled or constrained success. These insights will specifically inform the design of future initiatives in fragile urban contexts. Together, these evaluations will: (1) identify the project's impact through rigorous contribution measurement; (2) identify contextual factors influencing effectiveness; and (3) generate evidence for scaling successful approaches. Findings will be utilized primarily by implementing partners for adaptive management, secondarily by policymakers for national strategy development, and ultimately by affected communities through participatory feedback mechanisms integrated at each phase. 2.2 Specific Midline and Endline Evaluation Objectives As outlined in Annex 1, the URBANISE project established key performance indicators (KPIs) to measure progress toward its objectives. These KPIs will be benchmarked during the baseline survey and tracked longitudinally through midline and endline evaluations. This section defines the priority logframe KPIs and associated specific evaluation objectives to guide the midline and endline surveys. While these represent the core focus areas, the specific pre-post impact evaluation objectives, questions, methodology and tools will be further refined during the consultant inception phase. Assess the project’s contribution to Strengthening adaptive capacity and self-reliance among target urban and peri-urban displacement-affected communities (DACs), with a focus on reducing vulnerabilities to climate shocks through measurable climate resilience3 and self-reliance2 indices. Strengthening government structures’ inclusivity, capacity and effectiveness in advocating for community priorities, human capital development for rural-urban market linkages and implementing nature-based solutions in urban settlements, particularly in managing conflict and climate-related risks. Sustainable self-reliance of project participants, with targeted focus on women, youth, and marginalized groups, by measuring systemic improvements in economic resilience in livelihood diversification and income levels, financial inclusion through rural-urban market linkages, and climate-adaptive human capital development (demonstrated through enhanced financial literacy, business skills, and social capital). Increasing smoothened market entry for DAC businesses through market-system engagement and market system actors’ openness to and engagement with DACs. Improving market access for DAC businesses and how market system actors demonstrate increased openness to and engagement with DAC enterprises. Improving tenure security and strengthening housing, land, and property (HLP) rights security for urban and peri-urban DACs. Improving wellbeing and climate-resilient service access for urban and peri-urban DACs, with specific focus on measuring enhanced shock anticipation capacities and reductions in severe livelihood coping strategies and examine how implemented nature-based solutions (NBS) contribute to sustained accessibility of critical services (water, shelter, health) during climate shocks. 2.3 Project Evaluator (Consultant) Scope of Work BRCiS is looking to commission a consultant firm that will be responsible for the following key tasks: Collaborative Development and Implementation of the URBANISE Project Pre-post Impact Evaluation and Contribution Analysis Framework : The consultant will collaborate with the BRCiS Consortium to co-design the URBANISE project Pre-post Impact Evaluation and Contribution Analysis framework, ensuring alignment with project objectives as well as the Danish Representation to Somalia and BRCiS requirements. Following the measurement framework’s finalization, the consultant will lead the technical design and oversight of baseline, midline, and endline assessments, including the development of assessment tools, sampling strategies, data collection protocols, and quality assurance mechanisms to ensure data reliability. The consultant will also analyse findings and produce high-quality reports for each phase, translating evidence into actionable recommendations and finally facilitate dissemination workshop. While URBANISE Members will manage all field-level data collection for the three assessment phases, the consultant will provide remote technical support during the data collection, with limited travel to Somalia (tentatively in Mogadishu) to present baseline, midline and endline results and facilitate dissemination workshops for each assessment. Development of Urban Climate Resilience Index: The consultant will be responsible for supporting the development of a context-specific Urban Climate Resilience Index for the URBANISE project. This is a composite index that will assess household resilience to climate-related disasters using several sub-indicators—such as access to climate-resilient infrastructure, adoption of sustainable practices, income stability, early warning systems, food security, mental health, and social support disaggregated by location, displacement status, age and gender. The exact methodology will be developed by the consultant in consultation with the project team and the Danish Representation to Somalia. Design and Analysis of Project Logframe Qualitative Indicators and outcome harvesting: the consultant will lead the development of qualitative data collection tools and questionnaires for the logframe qualitative indicators (please see annex 1) aligned with the overall project pre-post evaluation framework and revise existing BRCiS outcome harvesting [4] tools to align with the project objectives. Following the tools development, the consultant will train consortium members who will then conduct field-level discussions and translations on these tools. The consultant will subsequently review the quality of the data collected, return it for clarification where needed, and proceed with analysis and reporting. This approach ensures local engagement while maintaining data quality and consistency in analysis. 3.0 URBANISE Project Pre-post Impact Evaluation and Contribution Analysis Methodology The URBANISE project will employ a longitudinal, mixed-methods evaluation framework (baseline-midline-endline) to systematically track progress against logframe KPIs using a mix of data sources including household surveys with a panel of project participants, participatory community discussions (focus group discussions and Key informant interviews), and outcome analysis. Using contribution analysis approaches, the evaluation will assess the project’s contribution and role in observed outcomes while accounting for contextual factors and external actors’ influences. This design intentionally avoids claims of causal attribution due to ethical and operational complexities in Somalia’s fragile urban settings, instead focusing on measuring URBANISE’s contributions to climate resilience-building alongside broader systemic dynamics. The methodology prioritizes adaptive learning, with findings structured to inform real-time program adjustments and future interventions. Consultants are encouraged to adapt and enhance the proposed pre-post longitudinal evaluation and contribution analysis methodology in their technical proposals, ensuring alignment with project objectives, logframe KPIs, and Somalia's urban displacement context while meeting the key proposed methodology concepts in this ToR., which will subsequently be reviewed by the Consortium for alignment with project objectives mentioned in this ToR, donor requirements, and BRCiS impact evaluation standards. The selected approach will emphasize methodological rigor while ensuring relevance to urban displacement contexts. Below are some hints of the methodology. 3.1 Mixed method Data Collection: Desk review of project documents and other relevant documentation. Baseline, midline and endline quantitative surveys with sampled project participants. Qualitative methods include: KIIs with government officials and other key community actors FGDs with neighborhood residents include direct and indirect beneficiaries considering Inclusive FGDs with DACs. Outcome harvesting 3.2 Analysis Framework: Longitudinal tracking of logframe KPIs: Measure changes in project outcome indicators across baseline, midline, and endline surveys (primarily focusing on direct project participants in household surveys and including non-project participants in community discussions). Contribution analysis: Use outcome harvesting to identify and assess key outcomes linked to project interventions and URBANISE’s role in observed changes, while accounting for external factors. Contextual narrative capture: BRCiS systematically monitors contextual factors affecting project implementation throughout the lifecycle. However, as an integral part of the contribution analysis and identifying actional recommendations, particular attention will be given to identifying and documenting, enabling factors that contributed to project success, constraints that limited effectiveness and external influences that shaped outcomes Project pre-post Impact measurement methods (e.g., study design, sample sizes, data collection methods, analysis framework) proposed by the consultants in their technical proposal will be refined in the inception report, pending stakeholder consultations. 4.0 Key Deliverables Key deliveries from the consultant include: - A comprehensive inception report with detailed and refined pre-post longitudinal impact measurement and contribution analysis methodology, sampling approach, urban climate resilience index, roles & responsibilities and workplan. Baseline/midline/endline quantitative and qualitative surveys data collection tools Data collection and quality assurance protocols and guidelines Training Consortium Members staff on the data collection tools, and data quality assurance protocols. Technical support during the data collection process. Final baseline, midline and end line reports including: Full reports (meeting BRCiS/donor EVAL Checklist standards) Executive summaries Presentation decks Cleaned raw data and data analysis tables and files Learning and actional recommendation briefs from the baseline/midline/endline surveys Dissemination Strategy: Dissemination materials will include, at a minimum, Comprehensive reports (baseline, midline and endline reports), slide decks, summary briefs, and these materials should be tailored to suit internal learning and external sharing, depending on the intended audience. Target audiences include Donor (Danish Representation to Somalia), Save the Children Denmark (SCD), BRCiS (CMU, SCI, NRC and GREDO), Somali Federal Government (FGS), Federal Member States (FMS) and project target communities (DACs) Dissemination Workshops: Community-Level Dissemination led by implementing partners with CMU support, materials will be context-adapted for DACs and will develop by BRCiS. Strategic-Level Dissemination Consultant will facilitate only one in-person 3 days workshops in Somalia per phase (baseline/midline/endline) for donor, government, and consortium members. BRCiS will determine the specific audience composition and daily attendance schedule for each workshop, communicating these details to the consultant in a timely manner Note: All final reports will be delivered in English, with specific formatting details finalized during inception and deliverables will undergo quality review against BRCiS and donor requirements and quality standards. All deliverables will be formatted according to the BRCiS brand charter. 5.0 Time frame for the evaluation process Evaluation Phases & Key Activities Phase 1: Inception Timeframe: Sept – Dec 2025 Key Tasks - Desk review: project docs and other relevant docs - Impact Evaluation Methodology design - Urban Climate Resilience index design - Data collection tools - Data quality assurance guidelines - Stakeholder engagement - Training BRCiS Members on baseline survey tools Deliverables Inception Report including URBANISE impact measurement framework, Climate resilience index and data collection tools (approved by BRCiS and donor) - Training materials for BRCiS Members Phase 2: Baseline Timeframe: Jan to March 2026 Key Tasks - Baseline data collection (Jan 2026 and to be done by BRCiS) - Baseline data quality check and data cleaning - Baseline data analysis and Report - Stakeholder validation - Dissemination Workshop Deliverables - Baseline Report - Executive Summary - Slide decks - Raw datasets and analysis files - Dissemination workshop - Learning Brief Phase 3: Midline Timeframe: Jan to March 2027 Key Tasks - Refresher training of BRCiS Members on the evaluation survey tools - Midline data collection (Jan 2027 and to be done by BRCiS) - Midline data quality check and data cleaning - Midline data analysis and Report - Stakeholder validation - Dissemination Workshop Deliverables - Midline Report - Executive Summary - Slide decks - Raw datasets and analysis files - Dissemination workshop - Learning Brief - Updated ToC/assumptions Phase 4: Endline Timeframe: Jan to March 2029 Key Tasks - Endline data collection (Nov to Dec 2028 and to be done by BRCiS) - Endline data quality check and data cleaning - Endline data analysis and Report - Stakeholder validation Deliverables - Endline Report - Executive Summary - Slide decks - Raw datasets and analysis files - Learning Brief Phase 5: Knowledge Dissemination Timeframe: May 2029 Key Tasks - Final project impact evaluation (endline) dissemination - Knowledge-sharing - Policy briefs (for govt/donors) Deliverables - Endline Report - Learning/Summary briefs - Presentation slides N.B: All the above table timelines are tentative and may change during the inception phase 6.0 Management Arrangements and Workplan Roles & Responsibilities Consultant: Lead pre-post impact measurement methodology and tools design, data quality assurance and data collection technical backstopping analysis and reporting; ensure BRCiS and donor requirement compliance; train BRCiS staff on tools, facilitate dissemination workshops and deliver all key deliverables. Consultant must adhere to NRC’s Code of Conduct, PSEA policies, and data protection protocols. Consultant will sign these documents during the contracting process. BRCiS : Oversee contract deliverables, facilitate stakeholder access and dissemination of workshop logistics, approve inception/final reports, and collect all field-based baseline, midline and endline data collection. The supervisor of the consultant is the BRCiS CMU MEL Manager with support from other CMU management and SCD teams. Municipal/Community Stakeholders : Participate in FGDs/KIIs and validate preliminary findings 7.0 Estimated duration of the contract A single contract will cover all phases (baseline-midline-endline) with phase-specific deliverables outlined in Section 5. The engagement is projected to commence in August 2025 and conclude in May 2029; however, work will not be continuous over this whole period of time. 8.0 Official travel involved The selected consultant is required to travel to Mogadishu, Somalia to facilitate the below sessions in person: Facilitate URBANISE evaluation dissemination workshops to present the final baseline, midline, and endline reports (three different dissemination workshops at baseline, midline and endline timelines) The Consultants will cover all travel and accommodation costs including visa, tax, flight costs, accommodation and meals, and NRC will support in-country transportation, security and administrative support for international firms only. All travel and accomodation and travel related budget should be included in the financial proposal. 9.0 Application Procedures and Requirements The interested consulting firms are expected to provide the following documentation: A cover letter introducing the consultants. The cover letter should introduce the team composition and specify the role to be played by each team member. A technical proposal of no more than 15 pages outlining how to execute the task with a clear proposed impact evaluation framework, sampling methodology, and timelines. The proposed methodology should demonstrate a clear understanding of the Terms of Reference (URBANISE pre-post impact measurement, sampling, data collection and analysis strategy/methods). The proposal must demonstrate how the approach meets requirements for contribution-focused evaluation, not impact attribution. Resume of each team member. Evidence of experience conducting similar assignments (Samples of similar work) is required. Proposed budget indicating consultancy fee, logistics cost and all other auxiliary costs in USD. The proposed budget should clearly separate costs/activities for each phase of the consultancy as detailed in Section 5 of this TOR. Considering available project resources, proposals demonstrating cost-effective and streamlined approaches to achieving the objectives will be preferred. Total project value is only 50,000,000 kr. (approximately $7.5 million). Qualifications or specialized knowledge and/or experience required from the team members and the firm Advanced degree (PhD/Master's) in economics, development studies, urban resilience, climate adaptation, or related fields are required. At least 5 years of proven experience in designing and implementing longitudinal (baseline-midline-endline) mixed-methods Urban Resilience Measurement and / or Durable Solutions , particularly in fragile/urban contexts required. Strong background in mixed methods (both quantitative and qualitative studies) is required. Strong background in contribution analysis is an asset. Strong background in outcome harvesting is an asset. Substantial research work in climate resilience or a related field with a geographical focus on drylands of the Horn of Africa and preferably in fragile context is required . Extensive experience both in qualitative and quantitative methods demonstrated through publications in resilience research or a related field is an asset. Previous experience in similar assignments in Somalia is an asset. Previous experience in evaluating Royal Danish Embassy funded projects is an asset. Only consulting firms are eligible to apply; individual consultants will not be considered Annexes Annex 1: Summarized URBANISE Project Result Framework (KPIs) URBANISE’s impact will be evidenced by 80% of participants increasing by at least two steps on the 5-step economic Self Reliance index and 60% of target neighborhoods demonstrating enhanced climate resilience and wellbeing. [1] The below table summarizes outcome indicators and targets; Indicator/Target – All indicators will be disaggregated by location, age, and gender as applicable 1.1 Government capacity on human capital development for rural-urban market linkages is enhanced (this is a qualitative indicator that will be evidenced through case studies) 1.2. Government capacity on application of nature-based solutions in urban settlements is enhanced (this is a qualitative indicator that will be evidenced through case studies) 2.1. 40% increase in participating DAC residents who report that their overall household income has increased 'moderately or significantly', disaggregated by location, gender and age group (youth, adult, elderly) 2.2. 30% increase in bonding, bridging, and linking social capital, disaggregated by location, age and gender 2.3. 80% of SHG members reporting improved financial literacy/business skills by location, age and gender 2.4. Market system actors are more open to business engagement with minorities, women and youth living in DACs (this is a qualitative indicator that will be evidenced through case studies) 3.1. 70% of urban and peri-urban DAC residents reported learning a new skill to anticipate climate-related shocks disaggregated by location, age and gender 3.2. 60% urban and peri-urban DAC residents reporting that they anticipated the most recent shock that they experienced by location, age and gender 3.3. 50% decrease in # of households using "severe", "crisis" or "emergency" coping strategies as per Livelihoods Coping Strategies Index (LCSI) by location, gender and age [1] Considering the lack of available measures for urban climate resilience, BRCiS is planning to develop a context-specific Urban Climate Resilience Index specifically for URBANISE. The index will be a composite measure assessing household resilience to climate-related disasters through several sub-indicators (exact methodology TBD, including in consultation with the RDE), including access to climate-resilient infrastructure, local adoption of sustainable practices, income stability, access to early warning systems, food security, mental health, and social support, disaggregated by location and gender. [1] https://www.nrc.no/brcis [2] https://www.refugeeselfreliance.org/sri [3] This is a composite index and will assess household resilience to climate-related disasters using several sub-indicators—such as access to climate-resilient infrastructure, adoption of sustainable practices, income stability, early warning systems, food security, mental health, and social support—disaggregated by location and gender. The exact methodology will be developed by this ToR consultant in consultation with the project team and the RDE [4] BRCiS possesses established outcome harvesting (OH) templates and tools, along with practical experience in their application. The consultant’s role involves reviewing and refining these existing OH tools to ensure alignment with the project’s pre-post evaluation objectives. Following this, BRCiS members will undertake necessary data collection and preliminary reporting, with the consultant providing technical support throughout the OH process. Subsequently, the consultant will extract key outcomes and findings from the Members’ OH reports and integrate them into the final pre-post evaluation reports, including midline and endline assessments

Consultants or firms that meet the above requirements are invited to download the complete tender documents free of charge from the Digital Procurement System (DPS). Eligible applicants must submit a comprehensive administrative, technical, and financial proposal via the NRC Digital Procurement System (DPS) not later than 12th August 2025 at 11:59PM. [https://eaydps.nrc.no/tender/details/9f81dc02-3ebb-4d86-864f-3668faa8d7e2](https://eaydps.nrc.no/tender/details/9f81dc02-3ebb-4d86-864f-3668faa8d7e2) If you have any technical difficulties in accessing the tender documents, please contact the following email address: [email protected] for assistance, considering that NRC will not share the bids via email as all bidders must Register and download the tender documents from the Digital Tendering System.